2022 Billington Cybersecurity Summit
Takeaways from an Important Discussion about the Future of Encryption
By Duncan Jones
In September, nearly 200 senior cybersecurity leaders from around the world convened to discuss the state of U.S. cybersecurity at the 2022 Billington Cybersecurity Summit. Topics around cybersecurity were varied and included discussions about moral asymmetry of today’s global threat actors, lessons learned from Ukraine and general discussions around all things that “keep us up at night” concerning cyber threats.
As a speaker at the Summit, I wanted to take a moment to share my take-aways from an important discussion that took place during our breakout session, “Future of Encryption: Moving to a Quantum Resistant World.” My esteemed fellow panelists from NSA, NIST, CMU and AWS exchanged insights as to where U.S. government agencies stand in their preparation for current and future threats to encryption, the likely hurdles they face, and the resources that exist to assist in the transition. Those responsible for moving their agency to a quantum-resistant world should find the following insights worth considering.
Getting Out of The Starting Gate
With the prospect of powerful quantum computers breaking known encryption methods on the horizon and with federal mandate NSM-10 now in place, the good news is that quantum-proof encryption is finally being discussed. The not-so-good-news is that it isn’t clear to cybersecurity practitioners what they need to do first. Understanding the threat is not nearly as difficult as understanding the timing, which seems to have left agency personnel at the starting gate of a planning process fraught with challenges – and urgency.
Why is the timeline so difficult to establish? Because there is no way of knowing when a quantum-based attack will take place. The Quantum-safe Security Working Group of the Cloud Security Alliance (CSA) chose the date, April 14, 2030, to represent “Y2Q,” also known as “Q-Day” – the moment secure IT infrastructure becomes vulnerable to the threat of a fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm. The Biden Administration based its implementation timeline on the day that NIST announced the four winning algorithms for standardization. Then there is the “hack now, decrypt later” timeline which suggests that quantum-related attacks may already be underway.
Regardless of the final timeline or potential drivers, one thing that was clear to the panel attendees was that they need to start the transition now.
The Need to ‘Future-Proof’
I get this question often and was not disappointed when one attendee asked, “How can I convince my agency leadership that migrating to quantum-proof encryption is a priority when they are still trying to tackle basic cyber threats?”
The panelists responded and agreed that the U.S. government’s data storage requirements are unique in that classification dates are typically 20 years. This means that systems in development today, that are typically fielded over the next 10 years, will actually have a storage shelf life of 30 years minimum. Those systems need to be “future-proofed” today, a term that should be effective when trying to convince agency leaders of the priority.
The need to future-proof is driven by a variety of scenarios, such as equipment and software upgrades. In general, it takes a long time (and perhaps even longer for government entities) to upgrade or change equipment, software, etc. It will take an extremely long time to update all of the software that has cryptography in place.
The panelists also agreed that given the extensive supply chain supporting federal systems, vendors are a critical component to the overall success of an agency’s future-proofing for the quantum age. In 10-15 years, there will be some government partner/vendor somewhere who will not have transitioned to quantum-proof encryption. For leaders who have not yet prioritized their agency’s cryptography migration, let them ponder that thought — and start to focus on the need to prepare.
Déjà Vu or Lessons Learned?
The panel shared several past technology migrations that were similar in their minds to the adoption of quantum computing.
Y2K was similar to the looming quantum threat by both the urgency and scale of the government’s need to migrate systems. However, without a deadline assigned to implementing the encryption migration, Y2K is really only similar in scale.
The panelists also recalled when every company had to replace the SHA-1 hash function, but concluded that the amount of time, effort, and energy required to replace current encryption will be way more important than SHA-1 — and way more ubiquitous.
While previous technology migrations help to establish lessons learned for the government’s quantum-proof cryptography migration, the panel concluded that this go-round will have a very unique set of challenges — the likes of which organizations have never had to tackle before.
Where to Start
The consensus among panelists was that agencies need to first understand what data they have today and how vulnerable it is to attack. Data that is particularly sensitive, and vulnerable to the “hack-now, decrypt-later” attacks, should be prioritized above less sensitive data. For some organizations, this is a very challenging endeavor that they’ve never embarked upon before. Now is an opportune time to build inventory data and keep it up to date. From a planning and migration perspective, this is an agency’s chance to do it once and do it well.
It is important to assume from the start that the vast majority of organizations will need to migrate multiple times. Panelists emphasized the need for “crypto agility” that will enable future replacement of algorithms to be made easily. Crypto agility is about how easy it is to transition from one algorithm (or choice of parameters) to another. Organizations that prioritize long-term thinking should already be looking at this.
The panelists added that communicating with vendors early on in the planning process is vital. As one panelist explained, “A lot of our service providers, vendors, etc. will be flipping switches for us, but a lot won’t. Understanding what your priorities are for flipping the switch and communicating it to your vendors is important.”
Help Is on Its Way
Matt Scholl of NIST shared about the work that NCCOE is doing to provide guidance, tips, and to answer questions such as what are discovery tools and how do I budget? The Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography project, announced in July 2022, is working to develop white papers, playbooks, demonstrations, tools that can help other organizations implement their conversions to post-quantum cryptography. Other resources that offer good guidance, according to Scholl, include recent CISA Guidance, DHS’ roadmap and the Canadian Centre for Cybersecurity.
One additional resource that has been extremely helpful for our CISO customers is Quantinuum’s CISO’s Guide to Post-Quantum Standardization. The guide outlines what CISOs from any organization should be doing now and provides a basic transition roadmap to follow.
Conclusion
The discussion wrapped up with the acknowledgement that quantum has finally become part of the mainstream cybersecurity discussion and that the future benefit of quantum computing far outweighs the challenges of transitioning to new cryptography. As a parting thought, I emphasized the wonderful opportunity that agencies have to rethink how they do things and encouraged attendees to secure management commitment and funding for this much-needed modernization.
I want to give a special thanks to my fellow panelists for the engaging discussion: Margaret Salter, Director, Applied Cryptography, AWS, Dr. Mark Sherman, Director, Cybersecurity Foundations, CMU, Matthew Scholl, Chief of the Computer Security Division, ITL, NIST, and Dr. Adrian Stanger, Cybersecurity Directorate Senior Cryptographic Authority NSA.
About Quantinuum
Quantinuum, the world’s largest integrated quantum company, pioneers powerful quantum computers and advanced software solutions. Quantinuum’s technology drives breakthroughs in materials discovery, cybersecurity, and next-gen quantum AI. With over 500 employees, including 370+ scientists and engineers, Quantinuum leads the quantum computing revolution across continents.
Progressing your organization along the five levels of quantum maturity
Quantum computing has moved from a bet on the future to a race already underway. Early adopters are locking in strategic partnerships, building proprietary IP, and positioning themselves years ahead of competitors who are still watching from the sidelines. For executives, the question isn't whether to engage with quantum computing. It's how far along that journey your organization actually is, and what it takes to move forward.
That's a harder question to answer than it sounds. Quantum maturity isn't a single milestone you either hit or miss. It's a progression, built across talent, technology access, workflow integration, partnerships, and value realization, and most organizations aren't entirely sure where they currently stand and what to do next.
Our new paper, A Roadmap for Quantum Maturity, is built to answer exactly that.
A Framework for Where You Stand, and Where to Go Next
Drawing on extensive client experience, the paper lays out five distinct levels of quantum maturity, from early awareness through full transformation, along with the leadership actions that move an organization from one level to the next.
- Awareness — early conversations, but no clear ownership or use cases yet
- Exploration — exploring partnerships and prioritizing use cases with limited budget
- Experimentation — quantum roadmap established and guiding dedicated teams, funding, and partners to execute pilot use case projects
- Integration — quantum computing applications are being embedded into business unit workflows, and the quantum roadmap is integrated with broader digital technology strategy, including AI, HPC, and data
- Transformation — quantum capabilities are embedded in core products and decision-making, with differentiated, proprietary advantage
Most industry leaders today sit at the exploration or experimentation stages, with clear ambitions to reach transformation within the next several years. The paper breaks down what separates organizations that progress from those that stall out at proof-of-concept.
The Advantage Is Built, Not Bought
One of the paper's central takeaways is one many executives underestimate: investing in quantum technology alone isn't enough. Organizations that advance fastest pair that investment with a deliberate strategy, building quantum literacy across leadership and technical teams, honestly assessing capability gaps, focusing on a small number of high-impact use cases tied to real business metrics, and defining a clear roadmap that connects research to business advantage.
How Quantinuum Can Help
Achieving quantum maturity is a journey, not a single step, and most organizations don't need to make that journey alone. Quantinuum's consulting services are built to support every stage of it, from advisory and use-case identification, to capability building, technology access, and the co-development of scalable quantum solutions.
Whether your organization is just starting to build awareness or already scaling toward transformation, our team can help you identify exactly where you stand today, and what it takes to move to the next level.
- SoftBank Corp. and Quantinuum articulated a roadmap connecting quantum algorithms, hardware evolution, and commercial applications, helping organizations understand when quantum computing can address real-world challenges.
- The analysis demonstrates that quantum value will emerge in stages, with early opportunities in data analysis and longer-term breakthroughs in scientific computing as fault-tolerant systems mature.
- The work provides a practical planning framework for enterprises preparing to integrate quantum computing alongside AI and classical high-performance computing infrastructure in quantum-AI data centers.
Quantum computing is increasingly moving from exploratory discussion to structured enterprise planning. As organizations begin to assess where and when quantum technologies may deliver real business impact, a new class of work is emerging: integrated roadmaps that connect algorithmic feasibility, hardware development, and commercial opportunity.
A recent white paper from SoftBank Corp. and Quantinuum represents one of the most comprehensive examples of this approach to date. Rather than treating quantum computing as a distant, abstract capability, the study constructs a detailed, quantitative framework for understanding how real-world use cases evolve as hardware matures—and what this means for enterprise strategy.
A Comprehensive Roadmap
The SoftBank–Quantinuum white paper is broad in scope. It attempts to answer a fundamental question:
Which real-world problems can benefit from quantum computation, at what scale, with what accuracy requirements, and under what hardware conditions?
To address this, the study adopts a structured methodology that connects:
- Algorithmic resource estimates (logical qubits, circuit depth, gate counts)
- Explicit error correction assumptions and overhead models
- Hardware roadmaps across multiple generations
- Timelines for when specific classes of problems may become feasible
Two representative domains anchor the analysis:
- Quantum chemistry, particularly excited-state dynamics and photochemical processes
- Topological data analysis (TDA), including graph-based structure and anomaly detection
These domains were selected because they combine industrial relevance with computational structures that scale poorly on classical systems but map naturally onto quantum approaches.
Quantum chemistry is closely tied to materials science, energy systems, and the development of sustainable technologies. TDA, by contrast, offers tools for understanding complex data structures in networks, finance, and large-scale systems—where identifying structure and anomalies is increasingly critical.
Together, they illustrate how quantum computing may create value across both deep scientific domains and high-impact data applications.
An important caveat is that the resulting roadmap assumes a widely-studied but inefficient error correcting code. As more error correcting codes come online, the resources required to run algorithms will shrink. That means that the timelines detailed in this work can be thought of as “worst case” scenarios, which adds to the value by setting out a clear limit.
A distinguishing feature of the work is its emphasis on implementation over abstraction. Rather than relying solely on theoretical models, the study explicitly constructs quantum circuits and executes them on Quantinuum’s Helios and H2 system.
Parallel Paths to Value
A notable insight from the study is that quantum value creation will not follow a single linear path.
Instead, two complementary regimes are expected to emerge:
- In quantum chemistry, the focus is on fault-tolerant, logical-qubit-based computation, where error correction is essential for scaling toward meaningful scientific and industrial outcomes.
- In TDA, value can emerge earlier, where partial quantum advantage may already support useful computational tasks without full error correction.
This dual-track structure is important: it shows that quantum computing is not a single “threshold technology,” but a spectrum of capabilities that unlock value at different stages of maturity.
The Vision for Quantum Industrialization
The framework ultimately supports a broader strategic vision: the evolution of Quantum AI Data Centers—hybrid infrastructures where quantum processors operate alongside AI and classical HPC systems.
For enterprises, the implication is clear: quantum computing readiness is no longer about speculation. It is about structured preparation, disciplined modeling, and early engagement with the full stack of capabilities that will define the next generation of computational infrastructure.
Every year, The IEEE International Conference on Quantum Computing and Engineering – or IEEE Quantum Week – brings together engineers, scientists, researchers, students, and others to learn about advancements in quantum computing. This year’s conference, from September 13th - 18th in Toronto, Canada, will focus on translating research into real-world impact through the convergence of generative AI, distributed quantum systems, and quantum software engineering.
Throughout IEEE Quantum Week, our quantum experts will be on-site to share insights on upgrades to our hardware, enhancements to our software stack, our path to error correction, and more.
Meet our team at Booth #501 and join the below sessions to discover how Quantinuum is forging the path to fault-tolerant quantum computing with our integrated full-stack.
Keynote with Quantinuum's CEO, Dr. Rajeeb Hazra
September 14th
5:00 – 6:30pm | 800 Hall G
Quantum computing has passed the point where error correction is theoretical. What comes next depends on systems that hold logical performance steady and do real work at scale. On September 14th, join Quantinuum’s CEO Dr. Rajeeb Hazra for his keynote session on “Logically Speaking: The Next Era of Error Correction” where he will explore what the next era of quantum computing requires: shared definitions of logical performance, and benchmarks built on real workloads.
Speaking Sessions
September 13th
11:00 – 11:12am | Location: 601A/B
Workshop: QGenAI: Synergies between Quantum Computing and Generative Artificial Intelligence
Finding Compatible Datasets for Quantum Generative Modeling
Presenting Author: Chen-Yu Liu
September 14th
1:00 – 1:20pm | Location: 701B
Workshop: Q3-Control: Integrated Systems for Quantum Computing, Sensing, and Networking
Cryo-ASICs for Scalable Control
Speaker: Dr. Patty Lee
September 15th
2:30 – 3:30pm | Exhibit Hall (informal event)
Workshop: Q3-Control: Integrated Systems for Quantum Computing, Sensing, and Networking
The Quantum Spectrum
Speaker: Dr. Patty Lee
3:00 – 4:30pm | Location: 801A
Where Quantum-HPC Integration Actually Stands in 2026
Panelist: Neal Erickson
3:00 – 4:30pm | Location: 718A
From Research to Commercialization: Defining the Quantum Workforce for the Next Five Years
Panelist: Kortny Rolston-Duce
September 16th
10:00 – 11:30am | Location: 801B
Who Will Turn Quantum Computing into Value? Specialists, Domain Experts, and the Workforce Gap
Panelist: Enrico Rinaldi
September 17th
10:00 – 11:30am | Location: 701B
International Workshop on Quantum Computing for Power Systems: From Optimization Algorithms to Grid-Scale Applications | Session 1
Organizer: Kortny Rolston-Duce
10:00 – 11:30am | Location: 714A
openQSE: Co-Designing the Quantum-HPC Software Stack from Applications to Control Systems | Session 1
Speaker: Neal Erickson
10:00 – 11:30am
The Impact of Qubit Connectivity on Quantum Advantage in Noisy IQP Circuits
Presenting Author: Leonardo Placidi
10:15 – 11:00 am | Location: 601A/B
Workshop: AI for Circuit Synthesis, Optimization, and Discovery
Automated near-term quantum algorithm discovery
Speaker: Konstantinos Meichanetzidis
11:00 – 11:15am | Location: 601A/B
Workshop: AI for Circuit Synthesis, Optimization, and Discovery
Fast Stabilizer State Preparation via AI-Optimized Graph Decimation
Presenting Author: Jasmine Brewer
1:00 – 1:15pm | Location: 601A/B
Workshop: AI for Circuit Synthesis, Optimization, and Discovery
Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Composition of Quantum Circuit Optimisation Passes
Speaker: Gabriel Matos
1:00 – 1:20am | 718B
Quantum Software 2.6: current challenges and headways in quantum software | Session 1
Quantum compilation and hybrid compilation
Speaker: Ross Duncan
1:00 – 2:30pm | Location: 714A
openQSE: Co-Designing the Quantum-HPC Software Stack from Applications to Control Systems | Session 2
Speaker: Phillipp Seitz
1:45 – 2:00pm | Location: 601A/B
Workshop: AI for Circuit Synthesis, Optimization, and Discovery
Graph-Theoretic Quantum Circuit Optimization with the ZX-Calculus and Gumbel AlphaZero
Speaker: Alexander Koziell-Pipe
2:00 – 2:15pm | Location: 601A/B
Workshop: AI for Circuit Synthesis, Optimization, and Discovery
Reusable Equivariant Neural Compilers for Matrix-Group Quantum Circuit Synthesis
Speaker: Richie Yeung
3:30 - 4:00pm | Location: 715B
Workshop: 4th Workshop on Quantum Computing for Natural Sciences: Technology and Applications
Quantum Algorithms
Speaker: Setso Metodi
September 18th
10:00 – 11:30am | Location: 801B
Scalable QPU architectures
Panelist: Setso Metodi